Bitcoin price analysis disputes ‘black swan event’

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant drop of up to 15% since the weekend, leading traders and analysts to speculate on where the market might bottom out and how long it will take to recover. The current price of BTC is hovering around $62,000, after briefly challenging the $61,000 mark. Analyst Mark Cullen believes that BTC will soon make another attempt to break through the $60,000 resistance level, and using the Elliott Wave method, he predicts that the price could drop to around $59,000. If this were to happen, it would be the lowest level for BTC since late February and would represent a 20% drop from its recent all-time highs.

Another analyst, Matthew Hyland, is looking at the upcoming weekly close to gauge the strength of the current pullback. He notes that BTC/USD has lost the support of its 10-week simple moving average, which currently sits at $64,130. The weekly candle close will be crucial in determining whether this is a good buying opportunity or a sign of further decline. The last time BTC tested this level, it proved to be a great buying opportunity and never closed below it. The data shows that full candles below the 10-week SMA have not occurred since mid-2023.

Binh Dang, a contributor to the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, believes that BTC could remain at lower levels for a longer period of time based on his analysis of the Adjusted Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric. CVDD measures the number of days a coin has been in a wallet before it is moved on the blockchain and multiplies it by the current price. Binh predicts that BTC/USD may retest and accumulate at the “Phase 2” line, represented by an orange line on the chart. He does not expect the current drop to reach the levels of panic seen during the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, and the “worst case” scenario would be a drop to just under $40,000.

BTC is facing new lower price targets and analysts are closely watching the market to see where the bottom might be. The upcoming weekly close and the behavior of BTC in relation to key moving averages will provide important insights into the future price movement. Long-term analysis suggests that BTC may remain at lower levels for an extended period of time before retesting its previous highs. Despite the current drop, analysts do not expect the situation to reach the panic levels seen in previous market crashes.