Bitcoin Miners May Dump $5B in BTC Post Halving: 10x Research

According to market analyst Markus Thielen, there may be a large amount of Bitcoin being sold by miners in the months after the halving. Thielen estimates that miners could potentially liquidate $5 billion worth of BTC following the halving. This selling pressure could last for four to six months, leading to a sideways movement in the Bitcoin price, similar to past halvings. Thielen believes that the same pattern could occur this year, leading to a challenging period for crypto markets during the summer.

During the months leading up to the halving, miners tend to accumulate BTC, creating a supply/demand imbalance that drives up prices. This phenomenon has already been observed in 2020, with BTC surging to an all-time high of $73,734 in March before experiencing a correction. Thielen suggests that this accumulation strategy will likely result in 133 days of additional supply hitting the market after the halving for Marathon, the world’s largest Bitcoin miner. Other miners are expected to follow a similar approach by gradually liquidating their inventories.

Thielen also predicts that altcoins may be negatively impacted by this situation. Many altcoins have seen significant declines in recent weeks and are far from reaching their 2021 peaks. While some believe that there may be a correlation between the halving and an altcoin rally, Thielen argues that historically, the rally tends to begin almost six months later.

In a recent statement, Marathon CEO Peter Thiel mentioned that the company’s break-even rate post-halving would be around $46,000 per BTC for profitability. This suggests that there may not be any significant price movements in the six months following the halving.

Thielen’s analysis suggests that the market may experience a period of consolidation and potential price stagnation after the halving. Miners selling their accumulated BTC could create a supply/demand imbalance that reverses the pre-halving rally. This, coupled with the potential challenges faced by altcoins, may lead to a relatively quiet market until around October, based on historical patterns.